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Post by St. Louis Blues GM on Feb 12, 2019 21:46:26 GMT -5
Every stat has its limitations, but to completely ignore ones with proven predictability isn't a great angle. IMO, possession numbers are at their worst for D-man, at least for certain roles. The analytics community will be quick to tell you how great corsi etc is, and how you can be a small team like Tampa and win, but at the same time completely ignore the likes of Coburn & Girardi on their blueline. Girardi was considered one of the worst D in the league prior to his arrival in Tampa, mainly due to Corsi numbers and Zone Starts. Obviously, the guy isn't a stud D by any means, but it's interesting to me that the analytics community have completely ignored cases like this. Tampa has valued size on their blueline this entire decade, dating back to the likes of Brewer. I'd love to see numbers #s on what those type of D, with bad possession metrics, are doing better than others on elite teams. I'd imagine it's a lot of breakups/denials, and being used more as 'time-killers.' They obviously have their role on the PK. That's exactly it. Most of those guys are penalty killers so their CF% is lower than it should be. The best stat to look at is 5v5 CF%. they still have bad 5v5 CF%, if you look at CF all situations, you don't know what you're doing lol
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Feb 12, 2019 21:57:56 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2019 21:57:56 GMT -5
That's exactly it. Most of those guys are penalty killers so their CF% is lower than it should be. The best stat to look at is 5v5 CF%. they still have bad 5v5 CF%, if you look at CF all situations, you don't know what you're doing lol I think another problem is they're used more in the defensive zone. If, as a player, you're expected to start in the defensive zone more often than in the offensive zone then the chances for the other team to score is higher than for you to score. Most of the time, the higher the defensive zone starts, the lower your CF% is.
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Post by St. Louis Blues GM on Feb 12, 2019 22:12:33 GMT -5
Yeah, I understand how it works. I'm saying Girardi literally had the worst CF%. Regardless of his zone starts, he was labeled shit. And now he's a solid 5 on the best team in the league. There's obviously something these guys are doing. Obviously ideally all your D can move the puck, but you can't fully prioritize that while ignoring other jobs the D-core has to do.
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Feb 12, 2019 22:53:11 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2019 22:53:11 GMT -5
Yeah, I understand how it works. I'm saying Girardi literally had the worst CF%. Regardless of his zone starts, he was labeled shit. And now he's a solid 5 on the best team in the league. There's obviously something these guys are doing. Obviously ideally all your D can move the puck, but you can't fully prioritize that while ignoring other jobs the D-core has to do. It could also be now he gets help. The Lightning have Hedman-Stralman, and then split up McDonagh and Sergachev so one plays on the second pairing and one plays on the third. That could be beneficial to Girardi's game.
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Post by St. Louis Blues GM on Feb 12, 2019 23:20:55 GMT -5
Yeah, you need a puckmover on every pair in the modern NHL. But I'd rather a guy that's really good at certain things defensively, and pair him with a puck mover like you said, than have another guy that's brutal defensively and isn't good enough for my PP units, just because he's good at moving the puck up ice.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2019 23:41:34 GMT -5
Exactly, I think the Leafs just did that today as well. They shifted around their lines and I'm actually not too upset about it.
Rielly - Hainsey Muzzin - Zaitsev Gardiner - Dermott
They practically put their best defenceman with their worst ones and then put the two middle guys together. Rielly and Muzzin cover for Hainsey and Zaitsev, Gardiner and Dermott cover for eachother. I actually like it.
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